Cycle analysis by Lars von Thienen
Every market has a zeitgeist. Cycles tell you which one you are in.
A zeitgeist is the mood of a time. In markets it has a length, a phase and a direction, and Cycles IQ measures it. Members get its instruments and direct access to Lars; developers call the model by the token.
The research newsletter is open to everyone: research.marketzeitgeist.com
Author of Decoding the Hidden Market Rhythm, Parts 1 and 2 · Finalist, Technical Analyst Awards 2022, two categories · Board member, Foundation for the Study of Cycles
Cycles IQ Membership · By invitation
The full cycles stack, with the person who built it.
Dashboards and lenses
Individual lenses that read the cycles of the markets you follow, and pre-designed cycle scoring boards to start from, built on Lars's own interpretation of the cycles and available only to members. The advanced analyzer, the scanner pages and the weekly cycle readings of the research newsletter are included.
API, MCP and the AI skills
Full Cycles IQ API and MCP access, from your code or from Claude, ChatGPT and Cursor. The Cycles AI skills let your AI coding tool build screens on the model. Where agreed in your offer, the stack runs on your own infrastructure.
Cycles Knowledge Graph
Where knowledge and scanning come together: every cycle followed through its life, every projected turn scored against the turn that came, across all markets. The record the cycles field has never had. In build; members receive each stage as it lands.
About the Knowledge GraphWith Lars. A 2-hour onboarding session with a written recap, then 30-minute sessions booked about a week ahead. Updates, maintenance and support are included.
Next. Chart interpretation: a dedicated Cycles language model will read cycle analysis charts and return a written interpretation, in the dashboards, through the API and as a lens of the Knowledge Graph, billed in tokens.
Terms. Membership is a one-time joining fee plus an annual service and update fee, set out in your individual offer. The method and the skills are proprietary, so membership starts with a signed NDA. How it starts. One request, a short questionnaire, a 30-minute call with Lars, then your offer.
Or write to lars@marketzeitgeist.com.
Method and background
Measured, not assumed.
Every reading starts from the data: detect the dominant cycles in a series, score their stability, locate the current phase, and only then project. The same routines run in the research, in the analyzer and behind every API call. Cycle lengths are not fixed in advance; they are found in the data and re-measured as it changes.
Every market moves in cycles, and the cycles morph: a length that dominated a series for two years fades, another takes over, and the right side of the chart no longer matches the one you calibrated on. For twenty-five years I have built the detrending, spectral and validation routines that measure this in the here and now instead of assuming it. What changed is the application layer: with the method encoded as skills, you describe the screen and the AI builds it. The measurement took decades. Using it takes an afternoon.
- Decoding the Hidden Market Rhythm, Part 1: Dynamic Cycles (2nd edition, 2017). The method for finding and trading dominant cycles, with indicator source code.
- Decoding the Hidden Market Rhythm, Part 2: Metonic Cycles (2014). A non-linear approach to cycles that influence financial markets.
- Finalist at the Technical Analyst Awards 2022 in two categories, Best Specialist Product/Research and Most Innovative New Product, for the cycle analysis technology behind the FSC cycles app.
- Lars von Thienen serves on the board of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles.
Inside Cycles IQ · Cycles Frontier Technology In build
The Cycles Knowledge Graph: know which cycles to trust.
The scanner tells you which cycles are in a market right now. The graph is built to answer the three questions that follow, which today are answered by experience and by eye:
- Can I trust this cycle? Its age, its length drift, and how likely it is to survive one more swing.
- Is it part of something bigger? How many related markets share the band and turn in the same weeks.
- Has this kind of call worked before? Every projected turn recorded before the fact and scored against what came, including the misses.
Status: in build. The first three what-if questions are running; Findings Report 01 will be the first published result. Members receive each stage as it lands.
Without membership
Other ways in.
Access today. The research newsletter is open to everyone, and FSC members use the free tier of the Cycles IQ API at no cost. Pay as you go opens after the invitation phase. The Cycles IQ Membership is by invitation.
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Research Free essays
Read on Substack
The research newsletter
Essays on the method are free. The weekly cycle readings of the markets are for paid subscribers and included in the Cycles IQ Membership. The research follows cycles beyond the markets as well: in macro series, in society and in natural data.
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FSC members Free
Activate in the FSC app
Free tier of the Cycles IQ API
For members of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles: analysis of your own data, three stored datasets, 2,000 key calls a month.
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Developers Per token
Cycles IQ API
The Cycles IQ API
The cycle model on demand for your code and your AI agents, by REST and by MCP, billed by the token. Opens after the invitation phase. The lenses and scoring dashboards, the AI skills, the Knowledge Graph and sessions with Lars come with the membership.
The Cycles IQ Membership starts with one request.
Tell Lars who you are and what you want to measure or build. He replies in person with your invitation: a five-minute questionnaire, then a 30-minute call. The research newsletter is open to everyone.
Write to Lars: lars@marketzeitgeist.com