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Market participants at a standoff awaiting directional resolution of a defined explosive technical pattern. Resolution will determine the direction of the next durable trend.

SPX Daily Chart 11-18-14

The broad equity markets (as represented by SPX) are at an important inflection point with an explosive contracted volatility pattern awaiting resolution. “Diamond” patterns portend extended price moves either higher or lower. Normally resolution is in the direction of the prevailing trend but with most indices at multiyear or historic highs and overdue for a […]

Buyers continue to press their advantage. However, reversal risk is elevated as the current steep angle of ascent is unsustainable with prices entering overbought levels. A pause to consolidate gains would be desirable.

SPX Daily Chart 10-27-14

Reversal risk elevated as equity indices are vulverable with confluent overbought indicators.

06-23-14 SPX Daily Headline Chart

The relentless grind higher of the U.S. equity indices can’t be denied. However regardless of one’s optimism, indices are nearing extreme overbought levels with confluent confirming indicators. For example, SPX RSI2 ended Friday’s trade greater than 97 and RSI5 greater than 80. Both are at extreme short term overbought levels. What’s more, the current angle […]

Morning Brief* – June 2, 2014

Morning Brief* – June 2, 2014Morning Market Brief. Macro economy in terms of business cycle model- 6/2-Employment and PMI reports are due this week. 5/22-The 9yr cycle is up until late this decade when a recession will occur. Last bottom was 2009. Last top was 2007. Markets in terms of business cycle model: Explanation- L5-L13 […]

Prices extend higher after capture of “Bullish Trend Reversal Threshold”. Lack of validateing volume could be problematic.

05-27-14 SPX Daily Headline Chart

SPX extends higher to reinforce a short term “Bullish Trend Reversal” but declining volume fails to validated new highs. Although the end of the month normally favors Buyers, approaching overbought conditions and lack of confirming volume increases (Bearish) reversal risk. A healthy pause to digest gains is favored with any throwbacks to test lower support […]

Market participants jostle for position as SPX remains above moving average support levels.

05-12-14 SPX Daily Headline Chart

May 1, 2014: SPX treads water ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report.

05-02-14 SPX Daily Headline Chart

SPX attempts to extend higher to then stall and end Thursday’s session with marginal losses. This shouldn’t surprise as the outcome to Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report awaits. The reaction to this report will determine if a potentially negated daily descending trendline is validated or only adjusted. It should go without saying, prudent investors/traders should stand […]

April 30, 2014: SPX tentatively captures overhead resistance, but follow thru higher is required to confirm.

05-01-14 SPX Daily Headline Chart

SPX captures a daily descending trendline but the jury is remains out awaiting the outcome of Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report. Caution is advised or Thursday trading as prices more will be more random (up/down) and swift as participants jungle positions ahead of Friday’s volatility events.

April 28, 2014: Both Buyers and Sellers jockey for position ahead of critical volatility events.

04-29-14 SPX Daily Headline Chart

Both Buyers and Sellers jockey for position to start the week ahead of multiple critical economic volatility events (e.g. tomorrow’s FED meeting announcement and Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report). Monday’s performance did not provide and addition clues and yesterday’s commentary remains relevant.

Morning Brief* – April 28, 2014

Morning Market Brief. Macro economy in terms of business cycle model- 4/15- News trend of last week and this week is best summarized as long term positive, but China remains a concern of slower paced growth. News- Markets in terms of business cycle model: Explanation- L5-L13 trends durations are hours to fraction of one second. […]