Sun, 24 Sep 17, 04:49:42 AM UTC
Subscriber: Log in

High Probability Price Zones

Market Zeitgeist Reports provides daily to quarterly statistically reliable tables of support and resistance prices for U.S. Equity Indices along with their relevant futures and Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) equivalents. Although these can be interpreted as "support/resistance" levels, we prefer to consider these as price signals. That is when prices enter these identified prices zones, under "normal" conditions it signals that either prices will reverse direction or consolidate. If not, it reflects a "not normal" condition and possible change in market character. Either way, it is extremely important information providing profit opportunities and/or with managing risk.

The foundation of our innovative high probability price zones is a measurement of financial market price movement to determine the "normal" amount of buying, selling, and range (distance from high to low) for a specific time frame. For example, each session (or trading day) will have a high and low. Over a period of time, there will be an average range with average buying and selling. Once averages are identified, we can perform a statistical analysis and use the properties of the Central Limit Theorem to observe normal price dispersions. Additionally, we provide "Implied Volatility Band" prices inspired by the extensive work of acclaimed former head of Equity Trading at Fidelity Capital Markets, Kevin Haggerty of Connors Research, which are an invaluable resource to many consistently successful professional money managers.

The following is a description and brief summary of our high probability price zone tables in order of frequency occurrence:

Market Zeitgeist Signals

Of the three price zones offered, Market Zeitgeist Signals occur most frequently and reflect "normal" buying and selling over a select time frame. Our proprietary algorithms scan historical price data quantifying the most accurate time frames to determine average/median buying and selling. Models are self adjusting and adapt to the smallest change in market dynamics up to secular transitions from Bull to Bear markets (or vice versa). At a minimum, Market Zeitgeist Signals have proven correct 68% (1 Standard Deviation) of occurrences and are consistent with a Normal Probability Distributions. This is extremely important at it ensures reliable and consistent price signals providing a mathematical advantage...an "Edge".

All subscribers have access to "Traders' Tips" and timely exclusive financial market commentary and analysis assuring the most statistically reliable entry and exit points possible. We currently offer price signals for S&P 500 Index complex (SPX, E-mini futures "ES", and ETF equivalent "SPY"); NASDAQ-100 complex (NDX, NASDAQ-100 futures "NQ", and ETF equivalent "QQQ"); Dow Jones Industrial Average complex (INDU/DJIA, mini-sized Dow futures "YM", and ETF equivalent "DIA"); and Russell 2000 Index (RUT, Russell 2000 Index Mini Futures "TF", and ETF equivalent "IWM").

The following is an example of a Market Zeitgeist Signal table. Median range and average range signals are listed with a "Mid-Point" price offered for reference as the spread between the median and average will often oscillate (distance between average/median changes).

 
Example of Market Zeitgeist Signals Daily S&P 500 and Equivalents* from Nov. 11, 2013

SPX COMPLEXBuy SignalsSell Signals
Price RangeSPXESSPYSPXESSPY
Median1766.681763.25176.411774.851771.25177.42
Mid-Point1764.971761.50176.321775.231771.75177.46
Average1763.271759.75176.231775.611772.00177.51

Implied Volatility Bands

Implied Volatility Bands (Vol Bands) do not occur as frequently as Market Zeitgeist Signals but when prices extend to these levels, volatility is usually excessive and an imminent mean reversion is anticipated. As noted earlier, Kevin Haggerty of Connors Research (former head of Equity Trading at Fidelity Capital Markets), has tested this concept rigorously and has been accepted by successful professional money managers and large institutional funds alike. Vol Band tables are different from Market Zeitgeist Signals as Vol Band tables use standard deviation bands with the expectation of a normal probability distribution. For example in the following table, the daily close has a 68% expectation to close at or within the Upper and Lower 1.00VB Bands. The 2.5 VB has a 99% expectation under normal conditions.
 
Example of Implied Volatility Bands Daily S&P 500 and Equivalents* from Nov. 11, 2013

Volatility BandsLower Bands SPXLower Bands Futures* (ES)Lower Bands SPYUpper Bands SPXUpper Bands Futures* (ES)Upper Bands SPY
1.00VB1761.861758.25176.291781.921778.50178.35
1.28VB1759.061755.50176.001784.721781.25178.64
1.50VB1756.851753.25175.781786.931783.50178.86
2.00VB1751.841748.25175.261791.941788.50179.38
2.50VB1746.831743.25174.751796.951793.50179.89

Emptus Signals

Emptus Signals are the least frequently occurring but are the most statically reliable and offer the greatest profit opportunity when observed. We have developed a proprietary algorithm which is a fusion of both Market Zeitgeist Signals and Implied Volatility Bands (among other attributes) and have found these to be very profitable throughout several business cycles. When Emptus Signals have failed, it normally precedes a prevailing trend reversal.
 
Example of Emptus Signals After-Hours/Overnight Equity Indices futures* from Nov. 11, 2013

Indice Futures*Buy SignalsSell Signals
STDVESNQYMTFESNQYMTF
1.001751.503332.7515,6071086.601778.253390.5015,8241112.00
1.281750.003329.2515,5961085.201779.753393.2515,8371113.50
1.501748.753326.2515,5871084.101781.003395.2515,8471114.70
2.001745.753319.5015,5671081.501783.503400.2515,8691117.30
2.501743.003312.7515,5471078.901786.253405.0015,8911120.00

*(Futures prices were for the DEC 2013 contract)
 
Coming soon, Market Zeitgeist Reports will provide price signals for primary industry sector etf(s) along with corresponding technical analysis and commentary. What's more, the "Posson Report" (by Richard Posson, CMT) is included offering a unique perspective which is a valuable complement to these high probability price zones providing enhanced profit opportunities as well.

We strongly believe you will find our website to be an extremely valuable resource and eagerly recommend a free trial to experience our professional commentary and timely entry/exit price points. You can cancel at any time. In fact, a single positive outcome can pay for the cost of an entire year’s subscription fee. If you have any questions at all, please feel free to contact us at any time.

Comments are closed.