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Morning Brief* – September 3, 2013

Macro economy in terms of business cycle model- PMI for August is due this week. A model input. 3yr cycle bottomed earlier this year for the economy, and trend is up into next year. 9Yr cycle bottomed during 2009, and trend is up until 2017-19. 3yr cycle will cause a ratchet process higher within the […]

Notes from a Napkin

Napkin Notes

USDA report and grain prices.  USDA raised corn acres slightly to 97.38 mln. Still showed a tight supply of corn. Corn stocks report was not a surprise. Corn acres report was some what of a surprise in that the average trade guess was for a sizable cut in acres. Overall, I found the report was […]

COMMODITIES & CYCLES UPDATE (June 26, 2013)

cycl-1-perfect

 Macro economy in terms of business cycle model- No change. 3yr cycle bottom for economies this year. US the stronger and may have bottomed this month or last relative PMI. Next week’s PMI report will be interesting. 3yr cycle offers growing economy until 2015. 9yr cycle offers growing economy to 2017 to 2019 and favor […]

Livestock Prices Possible Long Term Base Developing

cattle futures

Livestock prices may possibly breakout from a rounded bottom base. Using the iPath Dow Jones-UBS Livestock Subindex ETN “COW” as a proxy for current livestock prices, the current weekly chart has tested multiple long term confluent support levels (e.g., L2, Monthly Volatility Bands) to develop an increasingly strong foundation for a move higher. With the […]

Sugar showing cyclical signs for a move higher from a long term base

sugar

Sugar has found support from a long term “L1” base with the potential for a bull market rally into 2014. There is possible cyclical “L2” resistance in July, but longer term L1 support levels normally supersede L2 resistance.   With the weekly close of Sugar Oct 13 futures contract greater than 16.80, a reversal bottom […]

Soybean Oil possible move higher after multiple long term cyclical signals

Soybean Oil

(commentary coming soon)

Soybean market analysis with projections

Soybeans Sidebar

Will spot soybeans (JUL 2013 contract) find support at tentative trend line of support from 5/24 and 6/10 lows? I say yes…but make note of the blue box, which is the window of reversal for a L3 short term intra-month cycle bottom. Support may be as low as 1482, and I believe there is a […]

Intramarket Cycle Analysis and Commentary

cycl-1-perfect

Macro-China slower than previously expected. Perhaps the world as well. US recently slumped. Since 2009, US has grown faster than many in the world and China has grown. Economies will continue to grow until 2017 to 2019, and I favor 2019, and the earliest for a recession. No crash. No major bear market. 3yr long […]

Corn market analysis with projections

Corn Sidebar

  1947 Analog. Elwynn Taylor believes 2013 so far is like 1947. 1947 yield was down –23%. 1947 production was down –27%. Note the blue arrow left hand corner of chart. The year was 1947. A 9yr cycle bottom for yield. The cycle due 2008 to 2014 is much more important but with similar statistical […]

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