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Morning Brief* – July 19, 2014

Posson Report

Macro economy in terms of business cycle model- 7/19-Business statistics still suggest growing domestic and global economies. The PMI as input to a cumulative study was at record high. The study was of positive correlation to nominal GDP per capita since 1950s. The business-cycle model continues to forecast growing economies until late this decade. The […]

Morning Brief* – June 26, 2014

Macro economy in terms of business cycle model- 6/26-First quarter GDP was old news. Lower Durable Goods Orders Report was intra-year fluctuation. Consumer confidence, home sales, manufacturing and services reports this week suggested an upswing for the U.S. Economy. And so no change to the long-term business cycle outlook for a growing economy until late […]

Morning Brief* – June 16, 2014

Macro economy in terms of business cycle model- 6/16-Industrial production and manufacturing reports showed improvement. No change to 9yr business cycle forecast for growing economies until near end of this decade when a recession is due. Markets in terms of business cycle model: Explanation- L5-L13 trends durations are hours to fraction of one second. L4 […]

Morning Brief* – June 2, 2014

Morning Brief* – June 2, 2014Morning Market Brief. Macro economy in terms of business cycle model- 6/2-Employment and PMI reports are due this week. 5/22-The 9yr cycle is up until late this decade when a recession will occur. Last bottom was 2009. Last top was 2007. Markets in terms of business cycle model: Explanation- L5-L13 […]

Morning Brief* – May 28, 2014

Morning Market Brief. Macro economy in terms of business cycle model- 5/28- Durable Goods Orders, FHFA Home Price, S&P Case-Shiller HPI, PMI Services Flash, Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index were all supportive of the bullish model stance. 5/22-The 9yr cycle is up until late this decade when a recession will occur. Last bottom […]

Morning Brief* – May 23, 2014

Morning Market Brief. Macro economy in terms of business cycle model- Markets in terms of business cycle model: Explanation- L5-L13 trends durations are hours to fraction of one second. L4 trend duration is ½ to 2 days. Intra-week trend. A very short term trend. L3 trend duration is 2 days to 2 weeks. Intra-month trend. […]

Morning Brief* – May 19, 2014

Morning Market Brief. Macro economy in terms of business cycle model- 5/18- Unemployment remains in a long-term cyclical downtrend. GDP is likely to rise from spring to summer months. The 3yr and 9yr long-term business cycles offer growth for domestic and global economies this year and for most of this decade. Markets in terms of […]

Morning Brief* – May 12, 2014

Morning Market Brief. Macro economy in terms of business cycle model- 5/12- Unemployment remains in a long-term downtrend. MBA purchase applications spiked 9% for week of May 2. Winter recess is over for real estate demand. Expect the U.S. Economy to shrug of the sizable negative impact of winter weather. The model continues to offer […]

Morning Brief* – April 30, 2014

Morning Market Brief. 4/29/14 Macro economy in terms of business cycle model- 4/29- Coming up is the April PMI report. Housing and Durable Goods reports were positive input. Economy should pick up pace in coming months. 2014 to be a growth year better than 2013. Markets in terms of business cycle model: Explanation- L5-L13 trends […]

Morning Brief* – April 28, 2014

Morning Market Brief. Macro economy in terms of business cycle model- 4/15- News trend of last week and this week is best summarized as long term positive, but China remains a concern of slower paced growth. News- Markets in terms of business cycle model: Explanation- L5-L13 trends durations are hours to fraction of one second. […]